This month, a coalition of business groups in Juarez made a request for a deployment of UN peacekeepers. Juarez, a border city of 1.5 million people, has one of the highest homicide rates in the world. In 2008, over 1,600 people were killed in drug-related violence, an average of almost 31 a week. This year, that rate has soared to 50 people a week, or 1,800 in the first nine months of 2009 alone. Obviously, this type of a death rate warrants some serious armed intervention- hence the call for peacekeepers. What’s unusual about the request, however, is that Juarez is already pretty much under martial law. Currently, 7,000 Mexican soldiers and 2,300 federal policeman patrol the streets, or around 1 federal operative for every 161 people.

So, if Juarez has such a large number of armed government representatives patrolling its streets, why are businessmen calling for UN peacekeeping forces? One possibility is that the whole thing is a publicity stunt by businessmen fed up with living in a real-life version of a slasher flick. The other possibility- the one that has some serious ramifications for the entire Mexican approach to drug violence- is that the Mexican Army is a bigger part of the problem than everyone thought.

Philip Caputo delves into this theory in his excellent article for The Atlantic, bravely heading south to dig up rumors of military misconduct. Although Mexico has pretty much become a black hole for truth, Caputo manages to find some very credible examples of murders, kidnappings and torture carried out by the military. These examples are supported by a smattering of facts that have emerged, most notably the 1,230 complaints of military abuse made to Mexico’s National Human Rights Commission in 2008. It’s worth noting that, based on the culture of silence that has permeated the country, the real number of abuses committed by the military is probably much, much higher. Even more damning for the army is the popular belief in Mexico that the army is colluding with the Guzman cartel. One of Caputo’s sources explained, “it’s an open secret in Mexico that the army is fighting the Juarez cartel to weaken them and pave the way for Guzman.” If this is true, it certainly wouldn’t be a first. Past examples of cartel-commando partnerships abound.

If Caputo’s information about the army is accurate, then Mexico’s already bleak prospects look even worse. As the US has learned in its many forays abroad, public trust in security institutions is essential for quelling violence and ensuring public safety. Moreover, the Mexican government’s anti-cartel strategy is pretty much entirely based on using the army, and so a corrupt army means that Calderon will have to seriously rethink his plans to save Mexico from itself. It also means that US assistance to Mexico- meager as it is- should focus less on supporting the army, and more on supporting judicial institutions and federal transparency. Whether or not the army is part of the problem or the solution in Mexico remains to be seen, but the answer will surely carry some important hints about the future of our southern neighbor.

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A five year old boy killed by a shot of acid to the heart. Bodies dissolving in vats of chemicals. Plastic bags containing severed heads dumped in shopping centers. These are brief glimpses into the brutality of Mexico’s savage drug war, which has killed over 13,000 people since Mexico’s President Calderon deployed the army to curtail cartel activity in 2006. While grisly headlines churned out by the American media ensure that the chaos in Mexico is well known in the US, the long-term ramifications of that chaos have not yet been fully considered. Nor, it seems, have they been a priority in DC since the signing of the Merida initiative. But even though the maelstrom in Mexico has been overshadowed by national nail-biting over Afghanistan and Iran, it carries a heavy impact for the security of many Americans. The Obama administration, busy as it may be, cannot afford to continue ignoring the situation south of the border. Instead, Obama must be proactive, addressing the situation now before it worsens and the US finds itself with security threats on its border, not half a world away in Afghanistan.

Mexican drug violence is increasingly spilling over into the US. Already, the Department of Justice has designated Mexican drug cartels as the biggest organized crime threat in the US.  In the past few years there has been a substantial increase in the number of cartel-related crimes in the US, with cartel activity in forty-eight states. In 2006, the Justice department estimated that 100 cities in the U.S. were affected by cartel activity. By 2009, that number had risen to 230. Accompanying these rising numbers are rising crime statistics. In Phoenix, for example, the police department has recorded 700 home invasions in the past two years, all of them linked to drug and human smuggling. Between 2004 and 2007, a Mexican drug trafficking ring tortured and killed nine men in San Diego, dissolving two of their bodies in acid. And in Alabama in 2008, police stumbled upon the corpses of five men who had their throats slit for not paying their debt to a drug-trafficking ring.

Unfortunately, even with crackdowns like the one in October, the US is unlikely to be able to effectively push cartels out of its territory.  Until cartels lose their significant territorial, financial, military and human resources back in Mexico, they will be able to maintain a presence in the US. And even with the Calderon administration’s efforts to destroy drug cartels, the situation in Mexico is still far from under control. Violence is increasing, with kidnappings, torture, mass executions and decapitations now daily occurrences. In 2007, there were 2, 275 drug related killings in Mexico, while in 2008 that number rose to 6,290. Adding to the problem is widespread corruption, which has permeated all levels of Mexican government, law enforcement, and judicial institutions, thwarting effective rule of law. Even top officials are involved, as the October 2008 arrest of senior officials in the Mexican Attorney General’s anti-organized crime unit demonstrates. All of this points to the probability that things won’t be getting better anytime soon.

Furthermore, cartels have begun branching out in other industries, entrenching themselves into the fabric of Mexican society. In addition to drug trafficking, cartels are now involved in extortion, protective rackets, piracy, and trafficking of everything from stolen goods to people. Most worrying, there have been reports that drug cartels have been smuggling or aiding Middle Eastern terrorists attempting to cross the border illegally. According to a 2007 CRS report, some aliens associated with terrorism, including members of Hezbollah, have already successfully entered the U.S. via the Mexican border. Already, hundreds of people from countries of ‘special interest’- countries that are known to support or sponsor terrorism- cross the border every year. Intelligence also shows that Latin America, particularly Venezuela, is becoming a common way point for terrorists attempting to travel from South Asia to the US.

Altogether, the situation is ominous. The US can expect to see increasing levels of cartel-related violence both within its borders and below them. Americans should also be prepared for the possibility, even if small, of national security threats coming from the south.

Unfortunately, the 2,000 miles of border we share with Mexico means we cannot simply ignore the problem and hope it goes away. Denial is not an option, nor is procrastination. Instead of waiting until it is too late, we should begin a serious public and governmental debate on the situation now. The Merida initiative was an excellent first step. But as the continued chaos in Mexico demonstrates, it has not been enough. Extra steps are needed in the form of extensive US assistance to Mexico. This assistance can take the form of additional financial aid, training for Mexican law enforcement, and advice on building long-term security institutions that have the public’s trust.

Finally, the US must also accept responsibility for its role in Mexico’s drug wars and take actions to reduce that role. The vast majority of Mexican drugs go to the US to feed American demand, and 95% of the weapons used in drug violence in Mexico come from the US. American money supports cartels, and American weapons kill Mexicans. Steps to decrease domestic demand for drugs are sorely needed, as is a plan to stop the illegal purchase and smuggling of weapons.

These actions are well within the Obama administration’s capabilities. Instability in Mexico and cartel violence in the US can be lessened, if the political will is there. Yes, Obama has a lot on his plate at the moment. But history has shown us that preventative action often goes further to fix a crisis than a massive cleanup after the fact. Mexico cannot be ignored. The Obama Administration must act now, or face the consequences later.

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I have no doubt that when President Calderón declared war on the drug cartels in 2006, he probably did not expect it to get this brutal.  Not only have his efforts caused unprecedented drug violence throughout the country, the cartels are now resorting to kidnapping, piracy, and protection rackets to control drug routes into the United States.  And despite all the violence, which shows signs of getting worse, President Calderón has to worry about a possible political shift in the midterm legislative and municipal elections which may bring a surprise resurgence of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).  This is the same PRI that is said to use “electoral fraud, corruption, bribery, and repression when necessary to maintain control over individuals and groups.”  The same PRI that ruled Mexico for 71 consecutive years, but was voted out of office in 2000 by the National Action Party (PAN).

In 2006, the PAN and the “leftist” Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) were locked in a tight race ending in the narrow defeat of the PRD; the PRI placed a distant third.  But now, back from the political graveyard, the PRI have won several other local and state elections and claim they will take control of Congress in midterm elections held on July 5th-which might actually be possible since the PRD is currently splintering itself out of existence.  In November 2008, a Mexican nationwide poll shows the Mexican people favoring the PRI in the upcoming elections.  The World Politics Review even sees the PRI as the “party to beat” in July.  President Calderón -who doesn’t have to worry about a presidential election until 2012-is already having enough trouble getting needed economic and political reform passed through a Congress in which his own party holds the majority of seats.

And now for the “question” section:  What if the PRI gains the upper hand in the Congress and Municipal elections?  What if the PRI eventually maneuvers into the presidency in 2012?  (Who knows?  The PRI might even run under the campaign platform to stop drug violence…)  Will the United States policymakers be as willing to send over billions to Mexico if the PRI takes Mexico back from the PAN?  The impact on the Untied States policy is going to be real.  Now might be a good time to examine that “sunset clause” in the Mérida Initiative.

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As outgoing CIA Director Hayden points out, Mexico poses a great threat to U.S. security, second only to Al Qaeda.  I’m glad at least SOMEONE is remembering our suffering neighbor who has been plagued with drug violence for decades, only to have it recently explode into unprecedented brutality and death in 2008.

Kristin Bricker, a correspondent for narcoshpere.com, writes that “Mexico’s daily El Universal, which began counting drug war executions four years ago, reports that 5,612 people were executed in Mexico’s drug war in 2008.  This year’s deaths more than doubled 2007′s total of over 2,700 executions.  By El Universal’s estimates, about 8,463 drug executions have occurred during the first two years of Mexican President Felipe Calderon’s six-year term in office.”

Saying Mexico has a “drug-problem” is a gross understatement.  Cuidad Juárez-a city with a population of approximately 1.5 million and just across the border from El Paso, Texas-saw more than 1,300 murders in drug-violence in 2008:

That number includes at least 8 people killed during a prayer meeting at a rehabilitation center in August, where the machine gun fire lasted fifteen minutes and eyewitnesses reported that soldiers parked nearby did nothing; 4 men gunned down in October at an amusement park filled with civilians; and in November, a headless body hung from an overpass, a burned, headless, handless body dumped on the sidewalk in front of a police station, and 16 people killed in a single day, including 7 executed beside a school’s soccer field.

It doesn’t look as if 2009 is going to bring any change.  As of February 6th,  207 people have been killed in Juárez in drug related violence.

Almost as bad is Tijuana; warring factions within the local Arellano-Felix drug gang are decimating the tourist-driven economy of the once popular tourist spot.  Arresting Eduardo Arellano-Felix-the ring leader of the Arellano-Felix cartel-doesn’t seem to have stemmed the violence in the drug torn city.  The Guardian rightly comments that “as the body count has increased, so has the brutality of the killing. Corpses have been found severely tortured or decapitated, castrated, dipped in sulphuric [sic] acid or with their tongues cut out.”

Mexican authorities recently arrested El Pozolero, “The Stewmaker,” who worked for a Tijuana gang and brags to have dissolved over 600 bodies of rival gang members in vats of acid.  Although authorities estimate the total deathtoll closer to 300, the brutal tactics continue to show the viciousness raging in Mexico’s drug war.  In retaliation for the arrest of El Pozolero, a local police station was shot-up with AK-47s.  In the neighboring city of Cancun, less than 24 hours after assuming Cancun area’s top anti-drug official, Gen. Mauro Enrique Tello Quiñonez , along with his aide and driver, were kidnapped, tortured, and killed.  Their bodies were found on February 4th.

I find it interesting that the United States is now talking about a “Surge” in case the violence spills over into the United States.  In a telephone interview with The New York Times, current director of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff stated:  “‘We completed a contingency plan for border violence, so if we did get a significant spillover, we have a surge – if I may use that word – capability to bring in not only our own assets but even to work with’ the Defense Department.”

Mexican Cartel violence has already begun to “spillover” the border, reinforcing the adage that violence does not respect borders.  Dallas police officers report an increase in drug-related violence including “execution-style murders, burned bodies, and outright mayhem” that is currently marring Mexico.  There is also an increase in attacks on U.S. Border Patrol and law enforcement in border towns from drug gangs using automatic weapons to protect their shipments.  Drug-related kidnappings have also spread across the border as seen with the abduction (and later return) of Cole Puffinburger in Nevada; he was abducted as a warning to his grandfather who supposedly stole millions of dollars from a Mexican drug cartel.

America’s answer?  The Mérida Initiative.  This initiative is a $1.4 billion multi-year measure aimed at giving assistance to Mexico and Central America to combat drug trafficking and organized crime.  These funds will be used for inspection equipment, communication technology, helicopters, surveillance aircraft, and equipment and training for new law enforcement.  But the corruption in Mexican law enforcement is still making headlines, and despite Presidential backing, will probably cause hesitation in Washington to release the funds in such dire economic times.  The breadth of corruption in Mexican law enforcement is unclear, as is the amount of influence the drug cartels already possess within the government.  Just reading Stratfor‘s Mexico Security Memo for the weeks of November 2008 is enough to make you question the logical nature of handing over millions of dollars to the Mexican government.  November 2008 brought specifically interesting reading to incorporate the high profile arrests (including the director of intelligence) in the Mexican Anti-Organized Crime Unit (SIEDO) for “leaking sensitive information” to drug traffickers for money.  On February 1st, it was reported that another round of high-ranking Mexican officials were arrested for alleged ties with the cartels.

It seems everyone is on the take, so how can America trust the funds will get to those hardworking (and ill-equipped) individuals who brave the streets and death-threats just to make a better Mexico?

Granted, the idea of $1.4 billion to Mexico not making it into the right hands will continue to keep me up at night, but what is the alternative?  Maybe we could take a billion and build a BIGGER high-tech fence between the United States and Mexico, complete with attack dogs and watch towers every 100 feet of the 1,970 mile border.  Not very neighborly.  Or maybe wipe out all but Title IV of the Merida Initiative which focuses on reducing drug demand in the US as well as southbound flow of weapons, chemicals, and bulk cash transfers.  Unfortunately, being isolationist or just taking care of “our part of the problem” is not going to stop the violence or the increasing drug addiction plaguing the United States.

At least there are several checks and human rights conditions in the Initiative to impede misuse of the funds, but the implementation of the programs and technology must be done cautiously to ensure transparency and accountability in the process.

Given that the US shares a long border with Mexico, it is astonishing that many average Americans look at Mexico in terms of illegal immigration issues and do not seem concerned about their drug problem.  Well, it’s our drug problem.  Remember that the drugs would not be flowing up through Mexico if the demand for them were not so high in the US.   It is only in a joint manner that we can begin to take the drastic necessary steps to curb the hold the Cartels have on our neighbor.

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