There is much to like about the recently released Afghanistan Pakistan strategy by the Obama administration.  There is a strong emphasis on institution building in both countries.  There are references to making a long term commitment to the region – a lesson that has hopefully been learned after short term approaches have led us down the path where we now find ourselves.  The strategy recognizes the critical role that both civilian and military components must play.  So, yes, in my opinion, the strategy is right on in most of its components….except for one glaring omission.  There is virtually no reference to India in the whole document.

Of course, this was a very intentional decision.  The Indians clearly don’t want to be pulled into a “regional” solution to the terrorist issue because it might mean outside interference on Kashmir.  As Laura Rozen reported here, there was substantial lobbying by the Indian government to ensure that Holbrooke’s purview in South Asia did not include India.

Although many will argue that Kashmir is not directly related to the Al Qaeda terrorist threat in the region, the reality is that this perceived threat limits Pakistan’s willingness to devote sufficient attention to the terrorist havens bordering Afghanistan.  If we are truly going to partner with the Pakistanis in this struggle against violent extremists, it is important to acknowledge the Pakistani point of view.  The reality for many in the Pakistani leadership and military is that they actually see the threat from India as much more serious than that from Al Qaeda or the Taliban.  Few Americans feel threatened by India.  Most Americans see a tremendous threat from Al Qaeda.  So, it’s a bit difficult for many in this country to appreciate that Pakistan has gone to war with India three times since partition.  Considering that, I’m not altogether surprised that Pakistan has been talking tough against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, but at the same time preparing for conflict with India. The main sticking point remains Kashmir.  We may not think that it’s related, but the reality is that if we want Pakistan’s full attention on the terrorist threat, we’d be much more likely to get it if the Kashmir issue was resolved.  (more…)

I just finished watching the President lay out his strategy for Afghanistan-Pakistan and I found that there was much to like in the approach and just a couple of areas of concern.

As I noted earlier, President Obama has started to stock his administration with some terrific foreign policy talent in order to tackle the plethora of challenges facing the country and the international community.  Nevertheless, despite the fact that he has some of the best diplomats working for him, it is clear that securing a settlement on a number of these issues will not be easy. I am sure that the administration will find, on occasion, that its efforts to resolve complicated disagreements will be stymied. When that happens, I hope that the President and his foreign policy team will show a willingness to engage analysts outside government who can help them develop creative solutions to these challenges.

My belief, shared by others who blog here at PSA, is that the events of the past few years have illustrated that we need more creativity in our foreign policy discussions to avoid the stalemates and groupthink that have proven to be so costly. Fortunately early indications suggest that the President is keenly aware of the risks posed by groupthink and “the bubble” that can form around the Commander-in-Chief.  I was very happy to see that he recently attended an off-the-record dinner hosted by Lee Hamilton at the Wilson Center featuring scholar Haleh Esfandiari; Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid and Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi. My hope is that those who now work for the President follow his lead and seek to engage analysts outside government and take advantage of the creative thinking that is being undertaken on issues ranging from India/Pakistan to US/Russia relations. Illustratively, I noticed that my friend Naveed Ashraf discussed the idea of a Kashmir Union in this recent Dawn op-ed: (more…)

In an op-ed in today’s New York Times, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari writes that the Mumbai attacks of two weeks ago were directed at both India and Pakistan, and that the right answer is to strengthen ties and coordination between the neighbors, as well as with their western allies.   According to the Pakistani leader, the militants who attacked India were linked by ideology to those who killed his wife, Benazir Bhutto, and exploded a bomb in the Islamabad Marriott last year.

He explicitly denies any connection between the attackers and any agency of the Pakistani government.  Instead, he notes, the West bears partial responsibility for creating the Islamist terrorist movement, by “exploiting religion” to bring down the Soviet Union in Afghanistan during the Cold War.  That strategy worked, Zardari writes, “but its legacy was the creation of an extremist militia with its own dynamic.”

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