Tomorrow in Munich, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will exchange instruments of Ratification for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), thus immediately rendering the treaty into force.  The exchange is the final step in a ten-month process that began last April in Prague, when Presidents Obama and Medvedev met to sign the treaty. After lengthy and thorough consideration, the U.S. Senate ratified the treaty in a bipartisan vote this past December, followed in January by the Russian Parliament.

The importance of this treaty is reflected in the widespread and politically diverse support it has received from the military and policy establishments. The Secretary of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, and seven former heads of U.S. Strategic Command and Strategic Air Command have come out in support of the treaty. In addition, this past June, thirty top national security leaders signed a PSA statement on New START,  including ten former Senators, four Secretaries of State, four Secretaries of Defense, and three National Security Advisors, as well as the Chair and Vice-Chair of the 9/11 Commission among others.

Broadly speaking, the treaty requires both Russia and the U.S. to decrease their amounts of deployed strategic nuclear weapons, thus reducing the threat of “doomsday” scenarios of nuclear exchanges between the two countries. More specifically, New START gives both the United States and Russia seven years in which to reduce their deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 – down from the current numbers of between 1,700 and 2,200 – and limit the number of deployed delivery systems to 700 and the total delivery systems to 800. Upon entering into force, the treaty immediately instates a series of verification and inspection measures designed to provide each country with a sophisticated database of information on individual warheads and 18 physical on-site inspections per year. (more…)

As we watch the current demonstrations in Egypt and Jordan, and as Tunisia moves to a new phase in its history, much is being made of American ties to these leaders.  As the “Arab street” watches what is transpiring, it should note that the US and other western countries are letting these events play out even given real concerns over the impact this will have on geopolitics, global security and a shaky world economy.

Yet, as the governments and militaries of Tunisia, Egypt and Jordan show some restraint in handling these protests, one has to reflect on the fact that one of the most sophisticated populaces in the world, the Iranian people, were not shown the same courtesy by their regime.  Rather, the Supreme Leader, his allies, and his loyal guardsman and militias used and continue to use every opportunity to shut down peaceful protests and threaten the opposition.

Let’s hope the Supreme Leader and his allies realize that what is transpiring in the region is a revolt against autocracies writ large.  If Iran wants to become a real regional power and take what it believes is its rightful place in the international order, then it should unleash the greatest power it has – the power of its people.  After all, it is this Persian power that has contributed so much to world civilization and continues to garner international respect today.

Partnership for a Secure America’s Congressional Fellowship Program is now accepting applications for the Spring 2011 session. This highly selective program is for Congressional staff interested in generating dialogue and developing the skills and relationships required to advance bipartisanship on national security and foreign policy issues. Through training, networking, and exclusive activities, this unique program aims to build a “next generation” of foreign policy and security experts equipped to respect differences, build common ground and achieve US national interests. The deadline to apply is March 11, 2011. For further information about the program, and to apply, click here.

The Obama Administration announced Monday that it asked Partnership for a Secure America Advisory Board member, Ambassador Frank Wisner, to travel to Egypt to meet with President Hosni Mubarak and other Egyptian political leaders. A former Ambassador to Cairo (1986-91), Ambassador Wisner brings considerable expertise and strong relationships in the Middle East to bear on this current assignment.  Deeply respected for his contributions to American diplomacy and peace-building in some of the world’s toughest neighborhoods, Wisner has served in both Democratic and Republican Administrations, most recently as President George W. Bush’s special envoy responsible for negotiating Kosovo independence.

While doing some winter cleaning recently, I discovered an October 1970 edition of Life magazine I had purchased from a Manhattan street vendor some years back.  The cover story on the sudden death of Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser featured a photo of crowds swarming to the funeral of the controversial leader, who was, for them, a symbol of dignity.  More than forty years later, the scenes from Egypt are strikingly different, but echoes of that same desire for dignity remain strong.

To many watching from afar, the images of Egyptian protesters are equally compelling and mysterious.  Their cause seems just, having more to do with outrage over bad governance than ideology, but “who are they?” has become a common query with regard to the disparate group of protesters.  That leaves the question of what comes as far from clear, which makes you want to sit on the edge of your seat to see what happens but also leaves you wondering whether you’ll be sorry you did.

While Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution helped to inspire Egypt’s so-called Lotus Revolution, more consequential is what alternative model emerges for a transitional democracy.  Part of the fear associated with the what-comes-next scenario comes from remembering past negative models like Gaza.  On the flip side, though, is Turkey, a secular democracy in a Muslim majority state.  Moreover, the country has become an increasingly influential player on the world stage, and gained prestige in the Middle East for doing so.  And as the Wall Street Journal noted, Turkish policymakers see the potential to “enhance its diplomatic influence” even further.
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