For the past 8 months, Zimbabwe’s Ministry of Mines has been amassing a huge stockpile of diamonds plucked from the Marange diamond field in the eastern part of the country. The stockpile, which now tips the scale at around 4.6 million carats, is the unwanted byproduct of the Kimberley Process, the UN-backed regulatory body that certifies diamonds as conflict-free. Under the auspices of the Kimberley Process, 75 countries have agreed to adhere to strict standards governing the mining and sale of diamonds to ensure that the stones do not fund regional conflicts or contribute to human rights violations. If member countries are unable to meet the standards of the Kimberley Process, they are suspended or barred from selling diamonds under the Process. Zimbabwe fell into that category this past November when the Process suspended the country after investigations confirmed that the Marange mine was the site of grave human rights violations, including the alleged massacre of several hundred illegal miners by the Zimbabwean military.

Zimbabwe’s temporary suspension, however, is now under reconsideration and may soon be lifted. Several weeks ago, over 70 representatives from Kimberley Process member countries met in Israel to consider Zimbabwe’s case. Although the meeting ended without a decision, the Zimbabwean government’s position has enough support to make it conceivable that exports may be approved the next time the representatives meet. The South African businessman sent by the Kimberley Process to inspect Zimbabwean mines recommended that the country be approved, and African countries have largely backed Zimbabwe’s position. The main opposition to approval comes from three Western countries- the US, Canada and Australia- and numerous NGO and advocacy groups.

If the Kimberley Process member countries decide to lift the suspension, they will do so to the detriment of Zimbabwe’s future. On the surface, the Kimberley Process decision rests on whether Zimbabwe can prove that the Marange mining operation does not contribute to conflict or violate human rights in any way.  However, as the US well knows, any decision to allow Zimbabwe to sell vetted stones on the international market will carry repercussions not only for miners in Marange but for the country as a whole. For the past thirty years Zimbabwe has been ruled by President Robert Mugabe, whose unwillingness to relinquish power has seen his country deteriorate to the point where the Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy have officially designated it the 4^th worst state in the world. Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party is using the Marange field as a much-needed source of funds in poverty-stricken Zimbabwe, funds that it believes can strengthen ZANU-PF and ensure supporters’ loyalty. By diminishing the massive revenue stream from the Marange mines, the Kimberley Process can help weaken ZANU-PF’s finances, thus both preventing it from exponentially increasing its domination of the unity government and weakening its ability to compete with the political opposition, MDC, when Mugabe dies.

That day is looking closer than ever. At 86, Robert Mugabe is slowly coming to the inevitable end of his long reign over the disintegration of Zimbabwe. Mugabe’s death will almost certainly spark a power struggle for control of the country between his ZANU-PF party and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC. While both parties nominally share power under the auspices of a 2009 agreement, in reality the unity government is heavily dominated by ZANU-PF. Decades of entrenched power and corruption have proven impossible for MDC to supplant, and Mugabe has repeatedly reneged on promises and plans to meaningfully share power with Tsvarangirai.

Nevertheless, MDC is in a stronger position than ever before. ZANU-PF remains the prevailing force in Zimbabwe’s government, but the creation of the unity government was a significant victory for the MDC, allowing it to squeeze its foot through Mugabe’s door and step into the halls of government. In light of Tsvangirai’s past- tried for treason in 2003; beaten almost to death by state security forces several years later- his ascension to the post of Prime Minister is impressive. Bolstering MDC’s recent advances is the party’s popularity with the Zimbabwean populace: since 2000, MDC has won every national election in Zimbabwe. Yes, Tsvangirai is still harassed, and MDC supporters are still beaten and imprisoned, but there is now a faint glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel. If the MDC can hold on until Mugabe’s death, meaningful political change in Zimbabwe may yet be possible.

The biggest obstacle to this future is the strength and unity of ZANU-PF, which is where the Marange field comes into play. At 60,000 hectares, the Marange field has been described as “the biggest find of alluvial diamonds in the history of mankind” and, more succinctly, “a freak of nature.” Potential revenues from the mine apparently fall between $1 billion and $1.7 billion a year, or “half the crisis-ridden country’s total forecast GDP this year and enough to end its economic woes almost at a stroke.” It is certainly more than enough to pay off key ZANU-PF supporters, notably the armed forces and police, and to ensure a loyal coterie of “haves” willing to throw their weight behind the party in any potential future struggle for control of the country. For ZANU-PF, Marange is a fiscal catalyst for bringing about the return of one-party rule in Zimbabwe and ousting the MDC for good.

ZANU-PF’s behavior over the past several years has proven this to be an accurate assessment. The human rights violations at Marange- the reason Zimbabwe was suspended from the Kimberely process in the first place- came about when ZANU-PF dispatched the military to consolidate its control over the Marange field.  And although the diamond field is technically under the ownership of the UK-based African Consolidated Resources, the ZANU-PF-controlled ministry of mines has chosen to simply ignore the company’s claim. As a result, profits from the Marange field have been finding their way into the pockets of ZANU-PF’s top brass, including those of the Minister of Mines, who was found to have pillaged $18 million worth of diamonds earlier this year. The national treasury, headed by a minister loyal to MDC, hasn’t seen any of the revenues, nor have the people of Zimbabwe.

A decision by the Kimberley Process member countries to lift Zimbabwe’s suspension will thus condone and enable ZANU-PF’s legal pilfering of Marange, simultaneously strengthening Mugabe’s regime whilst undermining MDC’s prospects. As a member of the Kimberley Process, the US must not allow this to happen.

Critics may point out that even if the Kimberley Process does continue to suspend Zimbabwe, ZANU-PF will find ways to sell the diamonds anyways, as it has repeatedly threatened to do. Smuggling of diamonds into neighboring countries is already a quotidian occurrence, and likely to continue. Unfortunately, the Kimberley Process is flawed and thus unable to effectively stop such smuggling. Nevertheless, the price and buyers that Zimbabwe will be able to get for uncertified diamonds will be far below that of the legitimate market, and the resources of the Marange mine are so vast that it is difficult to conceive of a smuggling operation that truly exhausts the field’s resources.

Blocking the legal sale of Marange diamonds is not a one-stop solution to Zimbabwe’s political problems. But it is one way that the US can help undermine the supremacy of ZANU-PF and support gradual political change in one of Africa’s worst states.

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