Picking Up the Pieces in Copenhagen
By almost any standard, the outcome of the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen last week fell well short of its increasingly humble expectations. Copenhagen was considered pivotal because the “Bali Roadmap” laid out in 2007 circled this meeting on the calendar as the conclusion of the negotiating period which was to create a legally-binding post-Kyoto agreement. But by the beginning of the conference, the goal had been reduced to just establishing a politically-binding framework that would set the world on a course toward reaching a comprehensive international agreement in 2010.
Modest yet politically significant emissions reduction pledges by the US, China, and others prior to the conference contributed to a mood of cautious optimism at the outset of the two-week summit. But on just the second day, the massive rift between developed and developing countries was exposed with the leak of the so-called “Danish text” – drawn up by delegates from Denmark, Australia, the UK, and the US – which would allegedly place most of the power in the hands of developed countries at the expense of developing countries. The text was dismissed by the executive secretary of the UNFCCC, Yvo de Boer, as just an “informal” draft. But China quickly fired back with its own draft text, flipping the blame and the burden onto wealthy countries. A day later, delegates from the US and China traded barbs as the US State Department Envoy Todd Stern told reporters that “there’s no way to solve this problem by giving the major developing countries a pass,” to which Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei responded that Stern either “lacks common sense” or is “extremely irresponsible”.
The controversy stirred up in the first few days served as a precursor for the deep division between rich and poor countries that would plague the remainder of the negotiations. The next week was remarkably unproductive. Countless controversial draft texts fluttered around the Bella Center amid a walkout by African countries and thousands of angry rioters – impatient with the lack of progress – taking to the streets. With the looming arrival of over a hundred heads of state, the symbolic dichotomy of rich vs. poor countries had grown ever clearer and was threatening to derail the negotiations.
On the second to last day, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a substantial overture, committing the US to help build a $100 billion annual fund by 2020, contingent upon an international verification system to monitor emissions cuts. But China insisted that it would not submit to any international monitoring, calling such a system “intrusive” and an infringement on its sovereignty. With the world leaders due to arrive the next day, the US and China had reached an impasse. On the eve of the summit’s conclusion, the high-level representatives worked round-the-clock until 5 am to produce a draft text for the heads of state. Three hours later, Air Force One touched down in Copenhagen and President Obama was presented with the two and a half page draft agreement. At the Friday morning plenary, Obama reiterated the need for an international verification system, declaring that “without such accountability, any agreement would be empty words on a page.” Evidently, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao took offense, boycotting a pair of crucial negotiation sessions, instead sending his Vice Foreign Minister. A frustrated Obama reportedly said that “it would be nice to negotiate with somebody who can make political decisions.”
Obama finally managed to meet with Wen and, as time expired, the US, China, India, Brazil, and South Africa struck a mild deal to snatch the conference from the grip of complete catastrophe. Obama called the Copenhagen Accord a “meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough” but admitted its glaring deficiencies, citing the inability to overcome a “fundamental deadlock in perspectives.” The agreement is woefully inadequate, having stripped nearly all of the substance from the early morning draft. The Copenhagen Accord includes a three-year, $30 billion “jump-start” financing system for developing countries and an aspirational $100 billion per year Copenhagen Green Climate Fund to take effect in 2020. But it does not include explicit goals for near or long term emissions reduction targets, nor does it include a commitment to a sound international verification system. Most disappointingly, the Copenhagen Accord dropped the previously agreed upon timeline for sealing a legally-binding international treaty by the late 2010 COP16 meeting in Mexico City.
The US arrived in Copenhagen considered by most to be the main obstructionist to a global deal, but there is little doubt that the Chinese took home that ignominious prize. The tireless attempts by each side to cast the other as the villain may have doomed the negotiations long before the Obama-Wen showdown on the final day. Still, there is plenty of blame to go around, not the least of which should be placed on the US Senate for failing to pass legislation prior to Copenhagen. There were also flaws in the structure of the conference itself, as it was poorly organized and even more poorly executed. In the end, Copenhagen will likely be remembered as one small step in the right direction. But there remains a very long road ahead toward breaking the stalemate between the world’s rich and poor. Next stop: Mexico City.
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