Afghanistan questions I hope will be answered tonight
When President Obama addresses the nation tonight on the future direction of the war in Afghanistan, I will be anxiously waiting to see if he addresses lingering questions that remain in my mind regarding the strategy and America’s commitment. We all know that the President will be requesting at least 30,000 more troops. I’m supportive of that decision. We’re in a situation with no good options and this is probably the least bad of those available. But we must not focus solely on troop numbers. More troops without a realistic strategy for success would be a mistake. I hope that President Obama addresses (1) how the United States will pressure Karzai for reform and (2) how this country will pay for the war effort.
There will be much talk tonight about how we must push Karzai to get serious about reforms and anticorruption efforts. The need is clear. More than 8 in 10 Afghans report that the country is riddled with widespread corruption… and this poll was taken before the presidential election that generated widespread complaints of fraud.
The US counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan only works if there is a credible government that the Afghan population can turn to in place of the Taliban. So far, the performance of the Afghan central government leads many to question if it provides a better alternative. There will be much discussion of pushing the Afghan government to institute internal reforms and clean up its act. The problem is that our leverage is quite limited.
This recent article by Helene Cooper described the dilemma pretty well. Karzai knows that we’re reliant on him for our strategy to work. If we threaten to pull troops out, we both lose. So, it’s a hollow threat. The question I’m left with is what other carrot and stick approaches might work? The article refers to White House officials who say that there are other tools available. I”m anxiously waiting to hear what they are.
Helene presents one possibility of shifting resources from the central government to provincial leaders. Sounds like this could be a viable alternative if Karzai continues to be unresponsive. Perhaps another approach would be to phase the troop buildup in a way that is dependent on certain milestones being met.
There’s no easy solution here. I’ll be anxious to hear what specifics the administration has on the leverage points that it intends to use to press Karzai for reforms. Pressure works best when backed up by credible threats and enticements. It’s time to get creative on identifying what these might be.
The second item that I hope will be addressed is the issue of funding. There has been increased interest in this, particularly from antiwar Democrats. Even if some Democrats are using this funding issue primarily as a way to express their opposition to the war effort, it’s still a vitally important issue. I’ve written repeatedly on this blog that one of the great tragedies of the Iraq war effort was that there was so little asked of the American people. For those who have no loved ones serving, Iraq was a distant reality and for many Americans there has been no call for sacrifice. We’ve come to expect that future generations will pick up the tab.
Perhaps a war tax should be considered. Representative Obey has proposed a graduated war income surtax. The Washington Post had a useful alternative proposal of a gasoline tax similar to the one that was used to fund the Korean War. Of course, the politics of either option are bad. President Obama pledged that he would not raise taxes on the middle class. However, if a serious national security threat is not a legitimate reason for breaking such a promise, I don’t know what is.
Amanda Silverman writes here that in fact the recent conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are among the few instances when the US hasn’t imposed some type of war tax. Even if Obey is more interested in opposing the troop increase than funding the war, the idea of a war tax of some type merits serious consideration. I hope that President Obama will outline the shared national sacrifice needed to support our effort in Afghanistan.
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