As the Presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan, Hamid Karzai and Asif Ali Zardari, prepare to meet with President Obama this week there are concerning messages coming from General David Petraeus, the commander of US Central Command (Centcom).  Here’s an excerpt from a recent Fox News story on his thoughts on the situation in Pakistan:

They said Petraeus and senior administration officials believe the Pakistani army, led by Chief of Staff Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, is “superior” to the civilian government, led by President Ali Zardari, and could conceivably survive even if Zardari’s government falls to the Taliban.

In general, I believe that Petraeus has done an incredible job in Iraq and his approach to counterinsurgency is probably one of the most important elements of the turnaround that occurred there.  He has been an admirable public servant and I generally respect his judgment.  On this issue, however, if the above excerpt is accurate, there is much reason for concern – the insinuation that perhaps there is a better alternative to the civilian-led government in Pakistan that the US government might consider supporting.

It all comes down to exactly how one interprets the term “superior”.  It is true that a military government in place in Pakistan might be more quick to do the bidding of the US government (though the experience with Musharraf leaves even that to question).  The fact is that democratic governments are slow and cumbersome.  They must answer to the broad population rather than the will of a few appointed leaders.  So, yes, in terms of getting action quickly, a military-led government could, theoretically, be “superior”.  Similarly, a police state is pretty good at preventing crime.  That doesn’t mean that it’s the model that should be sought.

However, if the past history of military dictatorship in Pakistan shows us anything, it’s that military leadership is far from superior for achieving a long-term solution to the Taliban and Al Qaeda problems.  In fact, I would argue that it’s only through an elected democratic government that we can hope to achieve a long-term solution to this problem. The question we must ask ourselves is, do we really want to go back down the path of support for a military dictatorship in the hope of short term gain, or are we serious about building a sustainable, albeit slow, cumbersome, and sometimes messy, bulwark against extremist elements?

It is certainly true that until recently the elected Pakistani government has been slow to recognize and act against the Taliban threat.  Many question Zardari’s leadership and ability to actually control his country and fulfill promises.  However, it’s important to remember that whether or not he is willing to do US bidding at the moment must be weighed against the fact that he did indeed come to power through democratic means.  US history is rich with examples of support for military dictatorships to achieve immediate US goals.  We’ve seen that movie before andwe can be pretty sure that the ending isn’t pretty.

I would argue that our long term goal in the region – the elimination of extremist elements that can threaten American security – can best be achieved through the strengthening of democratic institutions, not by taking the short term view that the military is the most expedient solution to our problem.

Petraeus is right to say that the next several weeks are an important test of the government’s ability to fight back against the Taliban insurgency.  However, to claim that the US might look approvingly at an alternative type of regime that is “superior” to the current one is quite dangerous language when it comes to a country with such a history of military coups.

The more important signal, however, will not just occur over the next two weeks.  Of course Zardari will bring out the cavalry in anticipation of his meeting with Obama, just as Musharraf would make dramatic shows of support before his meetings with President Bush.  The real test will come in the ensuing months as we see whether this increased willingness to deal forcefully with the Taliban will continue.

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