Happy Thanksgiving From Mother Russia
(This is Part I in a series I will post from Moscow over the next few days)
Earlier this week, Russia dispatched a powerful naval fleet to Caracas Venezuela, as a show of force in support of President Dmitry Medvedev’s highly successful Latin American tour, which included arms deals with Venezuela and trade and diplomatic deals with Brazil, among other accomplishments trumpeted in the Russian press. A US State Department spokesman derided the events, suggesting the Russian ships might need tugboats, and insisting that the region still looks to the US first for political, economic, diplomatic and military power. But de facto American hegemony in Latin America—and for that matter outside the western hemisphere—may no longer be either feasible or desirable for the United States. That’s what Russians tell me, anyway. And I’m inclined to listen.
I am in Moscow this week, engaging in some interesting (let’s call them “track 3″) conversations with leading Russian international relations scholars, average citizens, and the occasional disgruntled goverment type. The conversations have dealt with a wide range of topics, including everyone’s favorite game in Moscow, like in Washington, of guessing Obama’s appointees for key national security and economic posts. But in each case, I have pursued the same basic line of inquiry: how can the incoming Obama administration create and then maximize an opportunity to restore positive, productive relations between the US and Russia, resulting if possible in a lasting strategic partnership? The answers have been fascinating as they were varied. Here’s Part I of my snapshot of Russian perspectives on the US-Russia relationship:
No Confidence in US to Manage Regional Crises
Across the board and the political spectrum, I am hearing the same thing from Russian experts: trust and confidence in the United States has not been lower since the end of the Cold War. In fact, it’s not a distrust of American motives that poisons the relationship (though a handful of Russian nationalists/hawks still cling to the notion that the US has cynical “grand designs” on the former Soviet sphere of influence) but a distrust of our competence to wield power responsibly, and not leave an enormous mess which Russia will be stuck having to clean up. The case studies ostensibly underpinning this principle begin with the continuing failed state of Afghanistan, which Russians believe represents a threat to the entire Central Asian region, and which they are equally convinced will remain in total chaos long after Obama or even the next US president inevitably withdraws US troops “with their tails between their legs.” In particular, some noted that the rise of narco-fueled terror groups in Afghanistan is a concern for the entire region, including the Central Asian “stans,” into which Islamic extremism, drugs, weapons, and the money that comes with it, will stream, ultimately causing the already weak governments of at least one or two Central Asian republics to fail completely. China will be there to absorb some of the chaos, and Russia will be stuck holding the security bag when the US hightails it out.
The US withdrawal from Iraq, and our de facto endorsement of an “untenable” situation in Kurdistan seems to lead Russians to a similar conclusion about the nearer Middle East, as does perceived US incompetence (or malice) in the Caucasus, where Russians across the board are quite convinced that if the US didn’t explicitly authorize Saakashvili to attack Russian forces, we are nonetheless responsible for creating an atmosphere in which he concluded he could get away with it. All in all, the current Russian perspective on the US is one of fear and insecurity–not because Russians think the US has evil intentions, but because they are certain we have no idea how to pursue our various noble-sounding global objectives without leaving utter chaos and destruction in our wake. American foreign policy is a greater threat to Russia today, they say, simply because we’re starting to make a mess in their front yard, instead of just in our traditional “dumping grounds” of the Middle East and Latin America.
No related posts.
As a postgraduate and a person simply interested in political life both on the national and international scales I cannot but comment on the above article.
The current global political situation has changed considerably from what it used to be for a considerable period of time. The world is no longer bipolar, it is unipolar, though this tends to undergo changes as well, since the might of the US, objectively, fades away, which is to be blamed on nobody but the US administration. It is probably George Bush Senior who laid the foundation of this decline successfully inherited and backed up by the 2 following US Presidents.
The point is that the context of the USA-Russia relationship should be reconsidered taking into consideration such factors that determine the actual state of affairs as the present economic and geopolitical situation, the level of regional and global security threats and other facets of the problem.
Representing Russia as its citizen I am free to say that the “show of force” is thought to be the right move on the side of our leadership and we, Russians, seem to be proud to be gradually regaining our once lost power. On the other hand, Russian people are more occupied with our home policy which in spite of the progress we have achieved leaves much to be desired.
It is clear that not everyone is satisfied with the current US foreign policy and some regional actors are developing fast enough to emerge as states capable of confronting the USA in many spheres (I focus your attention on economics and regional politics primarily) being fitting rivals. Here Russia is a vivid example of a country getting up. With Georgia having intruded the territory of South Ossetia claimed by both Russia and Georgia the relationship between Russia and the US have become more strained. One reason for the chill between these two world powers on the point is the US support of Georgia (let us call it the official reason), the other being the fact that the US troops participated in the operation designed by Saakashvili to occupy the territories out of Georgia’s control. There’s no denying the fact that the US helped Georgia in the operation. The most obvious material evidence is the Hammer cars captured by the Russian army and claimed to be returned to the US. It is in these machines that maps and all the strategy of the failed operation were found. According to the plan both South Ossetia and Abkhasia were to be taken by the Georgian troops. One little moment that is worth mentioning here is that these captured cars were no less than a part of the US defence system being deployed now all over the world. That is why I agree with the author of the article on that the States foreign policy is a greater threat to Russia today because of the US having got that close to our territory and interests.
In closing, I would like to underline the concept or reconsiderating the US-Russia relationship with many a global problem arising including terrorism, ecology, natural source depletion and finally the current economic crisis which was evoked by a number of factors that have been cumulating for a long period of time in all the leading world powers. It is a new age and it requires new approaches, flexibility and more rationality.
Comment on December 9, 2008 @ 5:12 am
P.S. One more issue in confirmation of the US helping Georgia in the operation mentioned above is the fact that the maps found in the Hammer cars where made with the help of staellites. Georgia, obviously, has no satellites. So, the inference is that it was America who provided Georgia with the information required.
Comment on December 10, 2008 @ 8:32 am
[...] friend of mine who runs a think tank in DC was in Moscow late last month and filed these three dispatches on his organization’s blog. Worth checking out if you’re interested in [...]
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