The likely probability, as I noted in my last post, of Sen. Obama becoming president is now reality.

And though I normally shy away from using words like “historic” because it is such a cliché I think this may be a time when it can validly be used. If, for no other reason than, as a recent Defense Science Board report noted, “It has been more than two generations since the presidency transitioned with American troops engaged in significant combat operations—a deployment begun in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks.”

So now Americans get to indulge in one of their favorite perennial activities; telling him what he should do. Deal with the financial meltdown, close Guantanamo Bay prison, make Africa a greater priority, declare a moratorium on new “free-trade” deals, reaffirm U.S. commitment to international laws, treaties, the United Nations, and multilateral responses to violations of international peace, work for a comprehensive nonproliferation policy, institute a cap and trade policy for carbon emissions, et cetera.

Looking at all the things people want him to work on you would think we elected Superman as president instead of a mere mortal.

Yet let’s not be naive. Even though he has yet to assume office his victory is already starting to create change. For example, as the Washington Post reported , Iraqi officials, who see President-elect Obama’s views on the timing of a U.S. withdrawal as consonant with their own, appear to be leveraging his election to pressure the Bush administration to make last-minute concessions.

Indeed, the Wall Street Journal reported last Friday that the U.S. notified Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki it has accepted many of the changes proposed last week by the Iraqi cabinet in a draft security agreement between the two countries.

Doubtlessly U.S. military officials will advise President-elect Obama to adjust his campaign pledge to withdraw all U.S. combat troops from Iraq by mid-2010. Remember that while promising a 16-month timetable for getting all U.S. fighting forces out, Obama repeatedly insisted on what he calls a “responsible” withdrawal.

And, in truth, if the United States wants to take back the majority of its equipment from all the bases, major and minor it has in Iraq, it will take more than 16 months.

Like all administrations, Obama needs to take stock of the world. Eight years of Bush foreign and national security policies, plus ongoing globalization, emergence of new powers makes the world a very different place.

Consider what Thomas Barnett, well known defense intellectual, and author of the bestsellers The Pentagon’s New Map and Blueprint for Action says in his forthcoming book Great Powers: America and the World After Bush due out in February. He writes:

The Bush-Cheney administration came into power seeking to realign the strategic relationships among great powers: whipping NATO into shape; putting rising China, India, and Russia in their place; and reasserting American leadership. The irony, of course, is that now infamous neo-cons achieved the exact opposite across the board. Russia’s pounding of Georgia in the summer of 2008 gave us a glimpse of that unwelcome future; exercising its own perceived right for unilateral military action following 9/11, America’s modeled behavior inevitably spawns the worst sort of imitation. The chickens have indeed come home to roost.

One problem for any new administration in this era is that the problems it deals with will not only be the ones that now exist but ones that are totally unexpected. As a recent monograph by the Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute notes:

The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent’s military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise.

So here is my two cents as to what an Obama administration should do.

First, be cautious. You have a plate piled high with policy issues to deal with. Some you have to deal with immediately, i.e., financial crisis. Others such as global warming and climate change and antiterrorism efforts are long term. Iraq and Afghanistan fall in between. And always remember that more are coming down the road.

Second, be confident. There are more people in the world who want to support America than attack it. There is actual and potential good will towards the country and you, both domestically and abroad, which you can tap.

Finally, as they said in West Side Story play it cool. One of your most attractive qualities is that you don’t utter many banalities. You know the problems we face are complex. If they were simple they would have been solved long ago. They require reasoned, critical, deliberative thinking and you’ve shown that you have that quality. I think you’re the right man at the right time. Now go forth and start solving problems.

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