Actually, it’s tahadiya, as opposed to hudna, which means calm or cease fire (sometimes spoken of as a truce). It’s interesting that in the Middle East, even a temporary, grudging condition-laden cessation in the fighting has to be negotiated. For the amount of time Israelis and Arabs (not to mention a host of other intermediaries, including US presidents) have spent at the negotiating table, they could have gotten through a lull, a calm, a cease fire, a truce, an armistice, a treaty, and moved on to solving world hunger, the energy crisis, and working out deals for Brad Pitt’s next dozen movies. They could have, that is, if it were anywhere other than the Middle East. But at least the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian negotiation (this time under Egyptian auspices) has given rise to what experts are calling a “lull” in the fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Inshala.

I’m not just writing this to highlight the absurdity of drawn out negotiations over something as pessimistically titled as a “lull”—it almost invites speculation about who’ll manufacture a violation first, and take advantage of it to catch the other side off guard—but rather to offer you, dear reader, a bit of detail about the nature of this agreement that I find infinitely more revealing than the reams of colorful descriptions coming from the mainstream press. So, here goes. (These details, by the way, are courtesy of the loosely IDF affiliated Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center in Tel Aviv—hardly an impartial source, but their information is generally solid.)

Here are the basic facts about the deal:

1. On June 17, 2008, at the end of several months of contacts between Egypt and Israeli and Hamas representatives, Egypt and Hamas separately announced that a lull in the fighting ( tahadiya ) between Israel and the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip had been agreed on. According to the announcements, it was expected to go into effect on the morning of Thursday, June 19, at 06:00 Israeli time.

2. The lull, which was formulated by Egypt , will be in effect in the Gaza Strip for a period of six months , at the end of which it is likely to be extended to Judea and Samaria . The core of the lull is the cessation of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, which Hamas is obligated to enforce on the other Palestinian terrorist organizations which have stated that they have no objection to the arrangement (although some of them have reservations). The cessation in the fighting will pave the way for the reopening of the crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip, put into motion the renewal of talks for the release of abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, and eventually lead to talks about reopening the Rafah Crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip.

3. At this time the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center does not have a full, detailed, formal version of the arrangement. From what can be gleaned from Palestinian, Egyptian and Israeli media reports, the lull will be implemented in three stages:

i) Stage One : Three days after the lull goes into effect, Israel will open the Karni and Sufa crossings and allow the passage of basic commodities from Israel into the Gaza Strip.

ii) Stage Two : One week later Israel will permit the passage of most commodities into the Gaza Strip with the exception of those used in the manufacture of weapons.

iii) Stage Three : One week after that talks will be held about opening the Rafah crossing. Participants in the talks will include Hamas, Fatah, Palestinian Authority and European Union representatives. ( Israel ‘s status in such talks is unclear to the ITIC. Israel is also a party to the November 2005 agreement which regulated movement through the Rafah crossing).

I’d just like to point out a really astounding and potentially hopeful part of this deal—Hamas has in effect agreed to enforce the “lull” within Gaza. In other words, it expects the other Palestinian organizations to

obey the deal it’s struck with Israel, and (unlike Fatah before it) Hamas might actually have the muscle to make it stick.

Here’s what they said:

Hamas made it clear that from its point of view, the arrangment obligated the other organizations . At a press conference Fawzi Barhoum noted that the lull was the fruit of the Palestinian organizations’ firm, united stance which had been achieved over a period of months. He said that all the Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip were completely committed to implementing the lull to protect the Palestinian people and its land, and to lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip (Palestine-info Website, June 17).

Here’s an interesting bit about what wasn’t included in the deal, and why:

Hamas was forced to back down on the issue after having tried, during the initial negotiating stages, to extend the lull to Judea and Samaria . However, Muhammad Nizal, a member of Hamas’s political bureau, said that by agreeing not to include Judea and Samaria in the arrangment Hamas was not capitulating to Israel . He said that “the West Bank is part of the land of Palestine but the most important thing is to lift the blockade of the Gaza Strip.” PIJ spokesmen said that as far as they were concerned, there was no separation between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

It certainly sounds like Hamas has come around to the predictions of some democracy promoters (Secretary of State Rice among them) that an electoral victory would force them to moderate some of their more exteme positions in the interests of delivering on promises of a better life, and holding onto political power. In this case, Hamas seems not only to have been willing to make a deal with Israel, but to sell out their operatives in the West Bank, on the theory that Gaza, after all, is where Hamas is the elected authority. Wow—it’s almost like these terrorists have developed a sense of government accountability. Better late than never.

Of course, it’s still the Middle East, so let’s not get too hopeful. Here’s what some senior Hamas figures had to say about the deal:

Khaled Mashal , head of Hamas’s political bureau in Damascus , said that the lull was necessary and that it would benefit the million and a half residents of the Gaza Strip, who had been harmed by the Israeli blockade. He said that the various organizations had achieved the lull from a position of strength. However, he also said that Hamas would respond to any violation by Israel (Reuters, June 18).

Mahmoud al-Zahar held a press conference where he said that the lull was a victory “for the resistance organization, which carried their weapons and that it meant that the blockade of the Gaza Strip, had failed.” He added that it was not a question of completely abandoning the use of weapons because he did not believe that Israel was capable of honoring the arrangement (Hamas Website, June 17).

I wonder if anyone in Vegas is laying odds on who’ll break the cease fire first and when.

No related posts.