New Year, New Strategy
The New Year, only two days old, already carries hope for the successful revising of US/NATO strategy in Afghanistan. In December, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates left a high level NATO meeting in Scotland with approval to develop a long term Afghan strategy, which will be created through coordinated assessments by the US State Department, US Central Command, and NATO itself. The new strategy will seek to minimize the increasing level of violence, which has produced unprecedented casualty rates in 2007 and has frustrated broader reconstruction efforts in the country. By developing a 3-5 year vision, including benchmarks to measure progress, increased NATO troop level, and a mission statement, clarifying the methods and objectives of insurgency combat, the Defense Department hopes to revitalize the spirit of the 7 year long Afghan mission.
Recent events underscore the urgent need for a revised Afghan policy. Benazir Bhutto’s assassination has dealt a crippling blow to Pakistan, which continues to function as an imperfect but irreplaceable asset in the US’s Afghan operations. Plans hatched between the Pentagon and the Pakistani Joint Chiefs in November, which would have expanded U.S. military presence in Pakistan’s frontier area, as well as launched a new US-Pakistani strategy for cross border military operations, will now be delayed indefinitely. With no leverage in Pakistan at the moment, and with limited capacity to increase US troop size in Afghanistan, the Bush Administration must find other methods to revamp Afghan policy.
Luckily, the Administration has timing on its side. Bhutto’s assassination, coinciding with the beginning of the presidential primaries, has thrust international terrorism once again to the forefront of US media. As the media frenzy kicks into high gear, ordinarily disinterested Americans become extraordinarily sensitive to the foreign policy platforms of the presidential hopefuls. Candidates such as Mike Huckabee, who have successfully campaigned up to this point without international policy experience or discernable strategy, find themselves subject to intense scrutiny. Furthermore, the focus of Washington is turning naturally to Afghanistan, as sectarian violence in Iraq calms at least momentarily.
To keep up momentum on revising the US/NATO Afghan strategy, advocates such as Gates must continue to lobby on two fronts: both to the U.S. public, and to NATO allies. The overtures by Gates and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice last December to improve civil-military coordination with respect to Afghan foreign aid are good examples of the former strategy. With respect to the latter, the Bush Administration must maintain an aura of confidence that the political situation in Pakistan can, and will, be remedied. Persuasive dialogue, as well as the carefully crafted long term strategy Gates has been tasked to devise, will be essential to secure the cooperation of our allies in Afghanistan.
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