In-Roads to Damascus
While the news from the Annapolis conference has been mixed, there was one positive development for American foreign policy in the region. The attendance of Syria (even though it was at the deputy foreign minister level) signals a willingness on behalf of the Assad regime to perhaps work its way out of the Iranian orbit in the region (Iran wanted them to stay at home). This is welcome news for those who seek to reduce the influence of Iran and a more peaceful Middle East. Rapprochement with Syria would yield significant dividends in various arenas in the Middle East, and, if this opening is real, it is an opportunity to pry an ally away from Iran and make strategic inroads into Damascus.
The recent news from Beirut is also promising. The Syrians and Americans have apparently agreed on a presidential candidate for Lebanon, army commander Michael Suleiman. Apparently there has been serious cooperation on this front for some time and hopefully it can continue into other areas. The overlap between American policy and Syrian influence is considerable. Syria shares a large border with Iraq and has accepted a large number of Iraqi refugees. Unfortunately, refugees are not the only things crossing the Syrian border. Weapons and insurgents have been coming into Iraq from Syria since 2003, sometimes with tacit support with Syrian regime.
Syria also has been meddling in Lebanon for years. Since the assassination of Rafik Hariri in 2005, Lebanon has become a battleground for American interests, represented by the Prime Minister Siniora’s government, and Hezbollah, backed by the Syrian government. Political assassination and turmoil has been the result of this fight by proxy in Lebanon, a crucial battleground of influence in the Middle East for decades.
Finally, Syria would be a crucial linchpin in any Israeli-Palestinian-Arab peace deal because of their proximity to Israel, their claim on the Golan Heights, and their cozy relationship to Hezbollah. The Annapolis conference that concluded this week dealt with this particular overlap of Syrian and American/Israeli interests, but it may a crucial foundation in which to build diplomatic relations that can integrate all of the issues mentioned above. The progress on electing a Lebanese President is already a good start. With the United States seemingly compromising in Lebanon, perhaps Syrian collaboration on Iraq or an Arab-Israeli peace deal may be a distinct possibility.
Greater cooperation with the Assad regime will also rob Iran of a crucial ally in the region. The Alawite government of Syria has been towing the Iranian line in Middle East politics recently, but by co-opting them, the United States could better isolate Ahmadinejad. US-Syrian détente would not only be practically useful (as enumerated above), but symbolically would strike a blow against the hard-liners in Iran who see themselves as being the dominant future power in the Middle East. By prying Syria away from Tehran, the United States would send the message that is it willing to do what it takes for peace in the Middle East. Additionally, it would show the Arab countries that the United States is going to be the major power in the region for the foreseeable future.
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Annapolis seems already to have born fruit for Abbas:
Israel released 429 Palestinian prisoners in a gesture the Israeli government says is intended to create new realities on the ground, to strengthen its negotiating partner, the Palestinian authority led by Mahmoud Abbas.
It’s time for confidence building on both sides, but especially time for concessions from the parties with real power. Israel’s latest action was a tremendous first step. Israel should add to it an explicit settlement building freeze (although a de facto freeze is already in place) and a timeline for withdrawal from all of the West Bank. The Arab states, for their part, should begin the process of establishing full and normal diplomatic relations with Israel. Such gestures could build the necessary confidence on both sides to withstand what many experts expect: a flare-up in violence fueled by Hamas and Hezbollah and funded by Iran.
Comment on December 3, 2007 @ 7:55 am