So, the surge seems to be working, at least in some ways.  Or so many American pundits think. If you are, say, an Iraqi, you see things a bit differently. Consider what was on the talk shows this weekend. On CNN’s Late Edition there was this:

WOLF BLITZER: Just a short while ago, I spoke with Iraq’s former prime minister Ayad Allawi. He joined me from Amman, Jordan.
 
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
 
BLITZER: Prime Minister Allawi, thanks very much for joining us. Welcome back to “Late Edition.”
 
Let’s talk a little bit about what’s happening in Iraq right now, and I’ll put some numbers up on the screen. In terms of Iraqi civilian deaths, it looks like the trend is positive. Back in June, more than 1,100 civilians were killed. In October, it went down to 565; in November, so far, 324, a dramatic decrease.
 
As far as U.S. military troop casualties, deaths back in June, it was over 100; in October, it went down to 38; in November so far, 31.
 
It looks like these trends are positive. Is the so-called military surge now working?

That is sixty four million dollar question. But perhaps the answer is not as simple as we hope.

AYAD ALLAWI, FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF IRAQ: Well, indeed, these figures do indicate a positive trend, but it’s still early to judge what is going to happen. We need to wait and see, in the coming months and weeks ahead, and see whether the trend is going to continue to stay down or will increase.
 
We hope, definitely, the trend will improve, the positiveness will improve, will continue. But I think we’re still lacking on the political side.
 
BLITZER: I want to talk about that, but I also want to play for you what President Bush said about this current situation, as it’s unfolding in Iraq right now. Listen to President Bush.
 
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
 
BUSH: Since the surge of operations began in June, the number of IED attacks per week has declined by half. U.S. military deaths have fallen to their lowest level in 19 months. Iraqi forces have now assumed responsibility for security in eight of Iraq’s 18 provinces. Across this country, brave Iraqis are increasingly taking more responsibility for their own security and safety.
 
(END VIDEO CLIP)
 
BLITZER: Is that right, that the Iraqis themselves are beginning to take charge throughout the country, leaving less of a responsibility to U.S. military forces?
 
ALLAWI: I think still the Iraqi forces are not ready yet to take the full responsibility. I think especially the police forces are still definitely not ready yet. I think there is an improvement in the army, but we want to observe the trends of how militias are being dealt with and how militias will be purged in the various security institutions. These are items still waiting to be observed, and we hope that ultimately, the Iraqi forces will be able, but I can’t see this happening yet.
 
BLITZER: You’ve suggested that while there might be progress on the military front, there’s dramatic lack of progress on the political front, that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not stepping up and doing what it should be doing. The last time we spoke, you had lost almost all confidence in Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki. Where do you stand on that point now?
 
ALLAWI: Well, absolutely, Wolf, the aspect of political solutions in Iraq and reconciliation is still far away. We haven’t achieved this. We are not even closer to achieving this than we were a few months ago.
 
And in fact, we are witnessing more and more problems within the partners in the political process. We also, I would like to mention, that the so-called awakening (inaudible), in the various provinces and various parts of Iraq is not part and parcel of the government. It’s independent groups in various provinces who are cooperating with the American forces and with the multinational forces, and that’s why we see a reverse pattern in Anbar and Mosul and Diyala and Kut. And maybe we’ll see this in Karbala.
 
BLITZER: So what you’re…
 
ALLAWI: But this does not…
 
BLITZER: What you’re suggesting — excuse me for interrupting, Prime Minister — what you’re suggesting is that the progress in the al Anbar and some of the other provinces is not because of the Iraqi government’s policies, but despite the Iraqi government’s policies, is that right?
 
ALLAWI: Indeed. This was an agreement between the people of Anbar, between the various factions and tribes in Anbar and between the multinational forces, the American forces. The government, in fact, of Baghdad have declared some time ago that they are against the so-called awakening in Anbar. And I think unless we integrate what is happening in Anbar into the system, into the government, into the political process, then we’ll end up in having various militias running the various provinces throughout the country, unfortunately. That’s why we need to see an integration of this process.
 
I explained this to Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Baghdad a few weeks in Baghdad over dinner at my house, and said that unless these people are integrated, the government would remain outside this process and the result will be in producing more militias and warlords.
 
BLITZER: The spokesman for Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, Ali Al-Dabbagh, he said this this past week. He said, “Certainly, we still have more to do. But no one can deny that we have passed the difficult stage in Baghdad, that stage that we had all feared of sliding to a civil war.”
 
Is he right that fear of a civil war has now passed, that Iraq is beyond that?
 
ALLAWI: I don’t think so at all, Wolf. I think it’s still very early days. We know that a third of the population of Baghdad have left Baghdad. If not more than a third.
 
We know that cement blocks are separating various districts in Baghdad. We know that there is a very strong presence of the multinational forces in Baghdad. God knows what will happen once these forces will withdraw, when the drawdown starts.
 
That’s why I think these are early days, very early days. And I think this is really to avoid addressing the political issues and addressing the reconciliation and taking courageous steps in favor of reconciliation in the country.

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