I’ve been struck recently about how we tend to look at the conflict in Iraq in terms of what we (the United States) wants versus what the Iraqi public wants.  I think that this point of view has certainly received insufficient attention. 

As we all know, the United States went into Iraq for a variety of reasons.  The reason presented most recently by the Bush administration is that our purpose in Iraq is to provide democracy for a country which had been subjected to the rule of an evil tyrant.  In this sense we’re told that we’re in Iraq on a goodwill mission.  Many would call this the warped idealist approach (or neocon) approach which argues that we can transform the world, if necessary, through military means. 

Of course, that’s not sufficient for many Americans.  So, our president says that we must stay in Iraq because if we don’t it will become a haven for terrorists, who in the long run will certainly attack us just as they did on 9/11.  This is the realist self interested approach to foreign policy.  Even if you don’t care about the long term welfare of the Iraqis who we are supposedly helping, you should at least care about your own well being. 

Others who argue from the idealist point of view say that we simply can’t withdraw from Iraq because if we do there will surely be a horrible slaughter.  Shias, because of their greater numbers, will conduct mass murder of Sunnis.  Sunnis will continue the insurgency against Shias.  They might call on Sunnis in other nearby countries to join the fight.  They say that we simply cannot let this genocide happen even if we did start the whole process in the first place.  Although they may regret our decision to go into Iraq, it’s up to us to ensure that we don’t leave it in shambles.  If we let this genocide occur, we will have the blood on our hands.

What is regularly omitted in these arguments is the opinion of the Iraqi people.  We are regularly told of the lack of support by the American people for our continued involvement in Iraq.  This is supported by numerous polls.  But, what about the Iraqi people?  If we are staying in Iraq to protect the Iraqis from a mass genocide then we should probably find that Iraqis are pretty supportive of us staying.  Because, if we leave, remember, a mass genocide is going to happen. 

The polling that I’ve seen that has been done in Iraq, however, points to exactly the opposite.  One poll that I’ve come across was conducted in September by PIPA, which is a well known authority on world public opinion.  Here’s a summary of the most important findings: 

A new WPO poll of the Iraqi public finds that seven in ten Iraqis want U.S.-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year. An overwhelming majority believes that the U.S. military presence in Iraq is provoking more conflict than it is preventing and there is growing confidence in the Iraqi army. If the United States made a commitment to withdraw, a majority believes that this would strengthen the Iraqi government. Support for attacks on U.S.-led forces has grown to a majority position—now six in ten. Support appears to be related to a widespread perception, held by all ethnic groups, that the U.S. government plans to have permanent military bases in Iraq.

What I also found interesting about this poll was that over 80% of the Sunnis said that they wanted the US out within a year.  I’m puzzled as to how the minority group that we are supposedly protecting from genocide wants us out of there.  Maybe it means that the Sunnis don’t really know what their in for if we pull out.  Or perhaps they feel that they can fend for themselves better without American troops there.  Or perhaps they think that the troops are making the sitation worse.  I’m not sure exactly what they are thinking.  And it’s not just the Sunnis.  A majority of the Shias also want us out.  What I do know if that with such local hostility we will never be successful.  Without the support of the Iraqis whom we claim to be protecting, our mission is doomed.  Whether or not one agrees with our decision to stay or go, most will agree that in such an operation, the US needs the support of the Iraqi people in order to succeed.  The polling indicates that we have failed in this regard.

Of course, many will argue that you can’t run a war based simply on public opinion.  Wars are painful and they are bound to create much opposition. However, I would argue that public opinion is one of the most important components in a counter insurgency effort.  Although no one poll should determine US foreign policy, it seems that the downward trend we see in the attitude of the Iraqi public towards the US occupation should be a factor that is given serious consideration.  

I’m interested to see other polling on this issue.  If others have supportive or contradicting polling please do let me know. 

No related posts.