As has been noted pretty much everywhere (here’s one good summary), the mid-term elections focus unusually on foreign policy, particularly Iraq. The shortfall of this debate is that – no matter who wins control of the Congress – George Bush and his Administration will run American foreign policy. A Speaker Pelosi or Majority Leader Reid (and their Committee Chairmen) will have far greater influence, but they will not set the agenda.
So what is at stake for foreign policy if the Democrats win the House and/or Senate? Well, a whole lot of things (with a sampling of opinion on it here), three of which I’ll focus on.

First, a message will be sent. It’s one thing to have polls that say a majority of Americans don’t approve of current policy in Iraq. It’s another to turn over control of the Congress. The whole post-9/11 political dynamic will be turned on its head. Republicans will know they can no longer simply fall back on tough talk on Iraq. Democrats will have their thirst for accountability satiated. In the spirit of this blog, that will – hopefully – enable a meeting in the middle and the building of a new consensus, at least on Iraq. Or it will prompt a digging in, which will sharpen the choices heading into 2008 (more on that in a bit).
Second, oversight will be back in Washington. And that can only be a good thing. Because while the Congres rarely sets American foreign policy, it can ensure that it is more effectively implemented: by asking hard questions, holding ideas up to careful public scrutiny, and ferreting out waste and poor execution. As more and more Republicans acknowledge mistakes made in Iraq, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find people who would say that the war has benefited from this kind of robust congressional oversight.
Third, it will frame the inevitable foreign policy debate that will drive the 2008 presidential election. Beyond the short-term effects, a repudiation of the Bush foreign policy and a more prominent platform for Democrats will enable the parties to flesh out their post-9/11, post-Iraq War foreign policies. Because if you think the 2006 election is an important foreign policy moment, 2008 will be transformative.

No related posts.