Let’s not fool ourselves. It is not an outbreak of fighting we are seeing in Lebanon right now. It is war. Even if it ends tomorrow it will still be war. And there is no likelihood that is going to happen. Like all wars it is an atrocity. Innocents are killed in both Lebanon and Israel. Fleeing refugees are blown to bits by Israeli jets near the border. Israelis are killed in rocket attacks in Haifa. An Israeli warship is hit and Lebanese soldiers are killed by Israeli attacks. Societies are shattered, physically and emotionally. So, the only appropriate response is to try and stop it. But thus far, President Bush declines even to call for a cease fire.

Vapid rhetoric about how Israel has a right to defend itself or how Hezbollah is just acting in defense of Palestinians in Gaza is not useful. Neither is uninformed neoconservative commentary about how now is the time to go after Syria or Iran.  Let’s be honest, in terms of cool headed appraisals of national interest, which are the only useful ones to engage in, it profits the United States nothing to see another war in the Middle East. Especially now, given our forces in Iraq, and our “long war” on terrorist which, by default, includes much of the Middle East.  Frankly, we do not have the military or economic resources to deal with it now. Our current multi-front war has already put a severe strain on our military.

And economically the ongoing fighting could easily jack oil prices up. Last week saw a record oil price — benchmark crude for August delivery closed at $76.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. If Iran decided to pull its two million barrels of oil per day off the market prices could quickly go up to $4 to $5 a gallon. And, given that the world currently has little to no spare production capacity unexpected events, such as another summer hurricane on the Gulf Coast, could raise it even higher.

It is worth remembering that in Lebanon Hezbollah cannot just be dismissed as a terrorist group. It is part of the nation’s political establishment. It holds two seats in the coalition government, and essentially controls a swath of the south of the country.

If Israel’s aim is to drive a wedge between Hezbollah and the rest of Lebanon there are signs it is backfiring. Initial Lebanese anger at Hezbollah’s actions has become more muted as attention focuses on the severity of the Israeli attacks.

It is equally worth noting that while Iran has undoubtedly supported Hezbollah militarily it does not own it. An analysis released last week by well known military analyst Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that “Iran has been supplying rockets and UAVs for years. There is no evidence that it dominates the Hezbollah or has more control than Syria, and the fact its ties to Hezbollah are so well known creates more problems for Iran in European eyes, and raises more risk of Israeli strikes or US strikes in the future.”

That should given pause to those who have been listening to the delusional ravings of the neocons who argue that the fighting in Lebanon is another reason why the U.S. should launch military operations against Iran.

One of the many sad aspects of the fighting is that for years the Bush administration has rejected the idea of dialog with Iran and Syria, the countries who have the greatest ability to influence Hezbollah. So now that we need them they have little reason to cooperate.

Right now both sides have made their strategic decisions. Both think they know how the war will be fought. Hezbollah thinks that for a while it can give as good as it will get, and will ultimately be able to regroup for a guerrilla war against the Israelis; just like it did in the past. Israel thinks it can immobilize and crush Hezbollah quickly and decisively and will be able to withdraw. Both can’t be right. But, recall that in the beginning of the last century there was also a conflict where the parties thought they knew what would happen if war broke out. That was World War I.

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